RE: El nino

[Mr. X]

It's correct that we are not seeing much of an effect from El Nino for two reasons (I'm not meteorologist either, but I've dabbled in the subject quite a bit):

1. This year is predicted to be a moderate El Nino, not like the strong El Nino of 97-98. This means that there will be much more activity in the lower latitudes of the North Pacific, but that not all of that activity will reach Southern California.

2. El Nino tends to have it's greatest effect from January onward. While it would not be uncommon to have a few larger than usual early season storms, that fact that we've had none so far doesn't have any bearing on the increased activity we'll see from El Nino. Increased activity should last through the late spring months, so it would be reasonable to expect a season that lasts well into April or May, provided that temps are low enough. As the MJO oscillation of the North Pacific goes into the active phase around the start of December, you can bet on some storms moving in.

Besides water temp anomalies and jet stream patterns, we have already seen increased swell activity (anyone who's a surfer can attest to this), the second largest eastern pacific hurricane in recorded history, and an extratropical storm from Japan bring moisture all the way to California in October (back when the MJO was active).

So to put a long story short: a lackluster november is no reason to be disappointed.

[Britt]

Great explanation!